To account for these conversions while still respecting user privacy in-browser, Google will use statistical modelling to estimate website conversions that can’t be measured from Safari and will include them in your AdWords reporting.

Google confirms that this model will only be deployed for conversions that cannot be measured. Any other conversion will be measured as usual. This includes conversions from Google Analytics, so if your AdWords is linked to Google Analytics, it’s likely that no modeling will be necessary.

There will be no segmentation or way of separating the modeled conversions within the Conversions column.

The change is taking place now and in the next month or so will happen automatically.

What does this mean for our clients?

For Mediative clients, we already use Google Analytics tracking for many of our programs because so many of them are multichannel. For Enterprise programs blending search, programmatic display and Facebook advertising, we use multiple different tag systems to pull in traffic and measure ecomm purchases, leads or priority content consumption. For app downloads, we bypass analytics and use data connected directly to the app, which so far should not be affected by this change.

We recognize that it is possible for modelled conversions to over-report rather than under-report. So while we have confidence in Google’s statistical modelling, we plan to observe closely and prep for sudden increases in reported conversions. There isn’t enough detailed information to forecast farther on things like impact to CPA or automated bids, but we do expect to monitor fluctuations in total conversions measured and total paid traffic from Safari.